As earnings season advances and retailers prepare to disclose Q1 results, a mixed picture is emerging from the U.S. apparel sector, with foot traffic patterns revealing the mounting tension between value-driven shopping and the waning allure of traditional department stores. According to newly released data from Placer.ai, high-street and mid-market retailers continue to grapple with unpredictable consumer behaviour amid persistent economic pressures and fluctuating weather conditions.
Off-price dvantage
Off-price retailers such as Burlington are proving resilient, benefitting from more budget-conscious consumers. Foot traffic at Burlington rose 6.5 percent year-on-year in Q1 2025, outperforming the broader category even as average visits per location declined by 1.9 percent. The retailer leads its segment as shoppers increasingly seek value over experience.
Department store divergence
Department stores, long considered bellwethers of consumer sentiment, are seeing a more fragmented recovery. Placer.ai data shows that while Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom posted modest year-on-year gains in Q1 2025 — up 2.7 percent and 3.3 percent respectively — not all peers shared the momentum. Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus, which recently merged and have been plagued by late payments to vendors, recorded declines of 6.0 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively.
Only Nordstrom posted an increase in average visits per store, at 4.1 percent, highlighting the uphill battle facing even premium retailers as they seek to remain relevant.
Luxury’s partial insulation from inflation has not guaranteed footfall. Even high-income consumers are adjusting their spending patterns, focusing more on experience and digital convenience than traditional in-store shopping.
Mass market woes and recovery hints
Gap Inc. continues to see volatility across its brand portfolio. Q1 2025 visits were down 3.8 percent year-on-year, and average visits per location declined by 4.2 percent. However, April brought a brighter outlook. Old Navy saw a 10.2 percent increase in footfall and a 9.1 percent rise in average visits per location versus April 2024 — a spike likely driven by tariff-related consumer behaviour and seasonal wardrobe refreshes.
Banana Republic and Athleta also showed encouraging signs, with average visits per venue climbing despite modest overall traffic declines. Athleta was the best-performing Gap Inc. banner in Q1, indicating strong brand engagement within the activewear space.
Disparate performances ahead of earnings
As retailers prepare to report earnings next week, divergence remains stark:
- Dick’s Sporting Goods (reporting May 28): Suffered a 5.9 percent decline in foot traffic in Q1 2025. Although March Madness partially offset earlier declines, February’s performance was particularly weak.
- Burlington (May 29): Strength in the off-price model was confirmed by a 6.5 percent increase in visits, reinforcing its leadership in the segment.
- Macy’s (May 29): Managed a modest 1.1 percent rise in visits, while its high-end subsidiary Bloomingdale’s continued to attract footfall with a 2.7 percent increase.
- Gap Inc. (May 29): Continues to navigate volatility, though April's rebound suggests that the group may be regaining its footing as summer approaches.
Structural shift or seasonal blip?
The data reflects a bifurcated market where agility and affordability are outperforming tradition and scale. While cultural moments and weather continue to drive short-term traffic, structural questions remain around the long-term viability of department store formats in an increasingly fragmented and digital-first retail ecosystem.